The latest report from the United Nations Monitoring Group on
Somalia and Eritrea has stirred tensions between Eritrea, Ethiopia and
Somalia.
Eritrea has seized on a selective reading of the report to call for
the lifting of UN imposed sanctions, a call already rebuffed by the
Monitoring Group’s Coordinator. The diplomatic fallout is likely to
continue as Ethiopia and its allies push for continued (or tightened)
sanctions on Eritrea.
It is a sensitive time in the Horn of Africa. Tensions are rising
along the region’s main political and security fault-line between
Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia’s government has taken an increasingly
bellicose tone towards its former province, perhaps signaling an
increased willingness to push more actively for regime change in
Eritrea. This would have major but uncertain security consequences
across the region.
In January, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of being behind an attack by
ethnic Afar gunmen on a tourist convoy travelling in Ethiopia’s
north-western region. The attackers were most likely criminally
motivated. However, given that the Afar people range across the
Ethiopia-Eritrea-Djibouti border area, the attack significantly worsened
Ethiopia-Eritrea relations. In March, Ethiopia staged raids across the
Eritrean border – the most significant military activity along the
border since 2000. Ethiopia said it was targeting Eritrean-sponsored
training camps for Afar militants. Ethiopia’s government may have hoped
to trigger a reaction from their Eritrean counterparts, but there was no
retaliation.
Long History
Successive governments in Addis Ababa have been challenged with
ensuring Ethiopian security in the context of a volatile regional
security landscape. The last two decades have seen civil wars in Somalia
and Sudan, as well as the 1998-2000 border war between Ethiopia and
Eritrea. Since 2002, lingering animosity between Ethiopia and Eritrea
has contributed to regional tensions, as both governments have sought to
undermine the other’s interests, such as by sponsoring proxy militia in
each other’s territory, and in Somalia.
Ethiopia has successfully exploited its important geo-strategic
position to ensure that Eritrea remains isolated, within the region and
internationally. Ethiopia’s failure to abide by the terms of the binding
arbitration over the two countries’ border delineation and demarcation
led to the current impasse. Eritrea’s poor diplomatic engagement has not
helped its position, although it could benefit, in principle, from
holding the legal high ground in the decade-long stalemate with
Ethiopia. In practice however, the African Union (AU) and the Horn of
Africa’s regional grouping, the Intergovernmental Authority on
Development (IGAD), have fairly consistently followed Ethiopia’s lead in
applying pressure on Eritrea, widely portrayed as a regional spoiler.
Ethiopia’s Strains
The government in Addis Ababa faces domestic resentment as a result
of the border war, which triggered a split in Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF is the core
of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
The purge which followed the TPLF split has seen power increasingly
concentrated in the hands of Meles and his senior advisors, and more
broadly, political space has tightened since 2005. In the 2010
elections, opposition parties had their appeals rejected after results
saw their representation reduced to just 1 of 547 parliamentary seats.
Restrictions on the media and non-governmental organizations have also
increased. The government has utilized its dominance of the media,
especially radio, to weave a narrative for public consumption of a
nation under attack, with the EPRDF defending Ethiopian interests in the
region.
Eritrea’s Isolation
Eritrea’s autocratic government was targeted by UN sanctions in late
2009, in response to providing assistance to Al-Shabaab in Somalia.
However in 2010 and 2011, the government made a concerted effort to
improve its international engagement. It reopened its mission to the AU
headquarters in 2011 but came under pressure as a result of allegations,
mainly from Ethiopia, that there was an Eritrean plot to bomb the AU’s
January summit. So far, sanctions have been weaker than Ethiopia had
hoped for. Moreover, they have not extended to Eritrea’s mining sector,
revenue from which has eased the impact of its isolation.
An Opportunity?
Although tensions are arguably at their highest level in a decade,
developments in Ethiopia and Eritrea and current shifts in regional
security may still signal an opportunity for renewed engagement.
Security dynamics in southern-central Somalia have shifted in the last
year, and Ethiopia and Eritrea are no longer the only external actors.
Al-Shabaab has suffered important military losses, which may leave
enough space for international diplomatic engagement on the
Ethiopia-Eritrea issue. International players should take the
opportunity to pressure the two countries to resolve outstanding border
issues and to unblock their diplomatic and security stalemate.
Eritrea’s fiscal position is improving as its mining sector starts to
generate revenue. This makes the country slightly less vulnerable to an
Ethiopia-led isolation. Eritrea’s government could be receptive to a
well-timed reengagement with the international community, if this were
seen to be accompanied by pressure on Ethiopia to abide by the 2002
arbitration decision. More quiet forms of diplomacy are needed, however,
as both sides have already staked their public positions quite
strongly.
Finally, rumours are circulating about Meles’s health after he missed
a recent AU Summit. These echo similar reports alleging the death of
Isaias Afewerki, the President of Eritrea, earlier in the year, which
turned out to be false. Whether he has a serious illness remains to be
seen, but it could well be that the leadership structures in Addis Ababa
are in for a shift – creating risks, but also potential opportunities
for engagement.
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